Obama Leak Investigations (internal use only – pls do not forward)

Released on 2012-09-10 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 1210665
Date 2010-09-21 21:38:37
From burton@stratfor.com
To secure@stratfor.com

Brennan is behind the witch hunts of investigative journalists learning
information from inside the beltway sources.

Note — There is specific tasker from the WH to go after anyone printing
materials negative to the Obama agenda (oh my.) Even the FBI is
shocked. The Wonder Boys must be in meltdown mode…

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INSIGHT – US/Afghanistan – more on strategy debate

Released on 2013-02-17 00:00 GMT

Read stories about those documents at the following addresses:

Email-ID Subject From To Date
66841 Re: INSIGHT – US/Afghanistan – more on strategy debate reva.bhalla@stratfor.com aaron.colvin@stratfor.com 2009-10
68609 Re: INSIGHT – US/Afghanistan – more on strategy debate reva.bhalla@stratfor.com aaron.colvin@stratfor.com 2009-10
1037320 INSIGHT – US/Afghanistan – more on strategy debate aaron.colvin@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2009-10

Stratfor emails reveal US has a sealed indictment against Julian Assange

Released on 2012-02-28 15:00 GMT

Read stories about those documents at the following addresses:

Email-ID Subject From To Date
211497 FW: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: WikiLeaks and the Afghan War scott.stewart@stratfor.com reva.bhalla@stratfor.com 2010-07
364732 Re: Wikileaks burton@stratfor.com longbow99@earthlink.net 2010-07
369979 Re: WikiLeaks question burton@stratfor.com PosillicoM2@state.gov 2010-11
370352 Re: Julian Assange arrest burton@stratfor.com william@himalayaconsulting.biz 2010-12
373862 Assange burton@stratfor.com tactical@stratfor.com 2010-12
375123 Fw: [CT] Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case burton@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com 2011-01
379356 Re: WikiLeaks plans ‘major’ announcement within hours as Pentagon bracesfor massive Iraq war leak burton@stratfor.com jimcasey58@aol.com 2010-10
380848 Re: Reuters media query –wikileaks burton@stratfor.com kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com, Peter.Apps@thomsonreuters.com 2010-11
385469 =?Windows-1252?B?UmU6IFtDVF1bT1NdIElDRUxBTkQvVVMvTUlMIC0gVmljdG9yeSBmb3IgV2lraUxlYWtzIGluIEljZWxhbmSScyBQYXJsaWFtZW50?= burton@stratfor.com ct@stratfor.com 2010-06
389793 mongoven@stratfor.com morson@stratfor.com, defeo@stratfor.com, pubpolblog.post@blogger.com 2010-12
391504 Re: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S. burton@stratfor.com shanewharris@gmail.com 2010-06
397988 Re: Assange JKaufman@randomhouse.com gfriedman@stratfor.com 2010-12
399448 The Weekly colin@colinchapman.com gfriedman@stratfor.com 2010-12
402168 Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks burton@stratfor.com gfriedman@stratfor.com, ct@stratfor.com, colby.martin@stratfor.com 2010-07
410485 Article on Wikileaks generalhamidgul@gmail.com gfriedman@stratfor.com 2011-01
679231 INDIA/PAKISTAN/CT- LeT planned to kill CM Modi using car: WikiLeaks animesh.roul@stratfor.com os@stratfor.com 1970-01
700446 PAKISTAN/US- Plea to ban WikiLeaks dismissed animesh.roul@stratfor.com os@stratfor.com, mesa@stratfor.com 1970-01
791684 BBC Monitoring Alert – IRAN marketing@mon.bbc.co.uk translations@stratfor.com 2010-06
942090 Geopolitical Weekly : Taking Stock of WikiLeaks noreply@stratfor.com duchin@stratfor.com 2010-12
968422 Re: Der Spiegel on Iraq War Logs marko.papic@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-10
1025066 RE: Wikileaks scott.stewart@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com, friedman@att.blackberry.net 2010-11
1035283 Re: [Fwd: WikiLeaks Prosecution Faces Hurdles] sean.noonan@stratfor.com burton@stratfor.com, analysts@stratfor.com, sf@feldhauslaw.com, tactical@stratfor.com 2010-12
1039924 Re: [TACTICAL] Thought–Re: wikileaks cablegate – disappearing cables burton@stratfor.com hughes@stratfor.com, kevin.stech@stratfor.com, tactical@stratfor.com 2010-12
1044308 Re: wikileaks cablegate – disappearing cables burton@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1044386 [Fwd: Re: [TACTICAL] Thought–Re: wikileaks cablegate – disappearingcables] burton@stratfor.com rbaker@stratfor.com, kevin.stech@stratfor.com 2010-12
1050427 Re: Assange is off the hook… gfriedman@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1051088 FBI SAIC comment on WikiLeaks (internal use only pls) burton@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com 2010-11
1056763 Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested burton@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1056988 Re: Wikileaks is attacking us burton@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1057220 Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested burton@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1058451 Re: diary for comment nathan.hughes@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1060101 Re: Assange is off the hook… chris.farnham@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1061018 RE: Random Business Idea – Network Security marko.papic@stratfor.com 2010-12
1067796 Re: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested burton@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1072269 Re: Assange is off the hook… marko.papic@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com, friedman@att.blackberry.net 2010-12
1074383 Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested nicolas.miller@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1078864 Re: WikiLeaks & Julian Assange friedman@att.blackberry.net rbaker@stratfor.com, analysts@stratfor.com, chapman@stratfor.com 2010-12
1079543 STRATFOR Reader Response – Taking Stock of WikiLeaks hughes@stratfor.com jackk@chicagobancorp.com 2010-12
1657727 Re: Assange is off the hook… chris.farnham@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1660854 OBL take — quick response needed burton@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com 2011-05
1663327 Re: Assange is off the hook… reva.bhalla@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
1675721 Re: wikileaks and second wave of financial crisis marko.papic@stratfor.com lena.bell@stratfor.com 1970-01
1681746 Re: Assange is off the hook… chris.farnham@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2010-12
5041325 Re: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com mark.schroeder@stratfor.com 2011-01
5041709 Re: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com mark.schroeder@stratfor.com 2011-01
5114800 Re: Fwd: [Africa] Fw: [OS] SOUTH AFRICA/CT- Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss mark.schroeder@stratfor.com anya.alfano@stratfor.com 2011-01
5192411 Re: Wikileaks — South Africa, May 16, 2008 nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com mark.schroeder@stratfor.com 2011-01
5511573 Re: [Military] [Fwd: Wikileaks] scott.stewart@stratfor.com burton@stratfor.com, military@stratfor.com, matthew.powers@stratfor.com, tactical@stratfor.com 2010-07

Funcionarios mexicanos negocian tratos con “cárteles” de droga

List of documents > Release Funcionarios mexicanos negocian tratos con “cárteles” de droga, según documentos de WikiLeaks

Released on 2012-08-20 17:00 GMT

Read stories about those documents at the following addresses:

Email-ID Subject From To Date
389862 Fw: From MX1 — 2 burton@stratfor.com thecactusjack@gmail.com 2010-04
1141337 Re: INSIGHT-MEXICO/US-Mishandling of ICE informants-US714 burton@stratfor.com scott.stewart@stratfor.com, zucha@stratfor.com, secure@stratfor.com 2011-04
1541767 Re: INSIGHT-MEXICO-US special forces in Mexico-US714 victoria.allen@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com 2011-06
1740847 FOR MEX WEEKLY Fwd: FROM MX1: on CDJ marko.papic@stratfor.com gfriedman@stratfor.com 2010-04
1747409 Re: Get follow up from mx1? Thx marko.papic@stratfor.com burton@stratfor.com 2010-06
1747720 Re: [Fwd: Re: FW: From MX1 — 2] marko.papic@stratfor.com burton@stratfor.com, alex.posey@stratfor.com 2010-06
3944706 INSIGHT – Mexico – Nuevo Laredo Firefight is Mex op with US help – US714 Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com zucha@stratfor.com, fred.burton@stratfor.com, watchofficer@stratfor.com 2011-10

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INSIGHT – AR 516 – Peru’s response to the spy scandal, and thoughts from upper level military

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 375935
Date 2009-11-18 17:26:01

This demonstrates a relatively high level of agitation among the
Peruvians. My main military contact in Chile has been downplaying this
issue strongly, saying it doesn’t matter, tha tensions between Peru and
Chile are no big deal and that the Peruvians are exaggerating all of it.

Bypassing WO as per Stick.

PUBLICATION: Not yet
SOURCE: AR 01 chatting with AR 516
ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor Source
SOURCE placement : B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRO: SECURE
Handler: Karen

He said well we talked a lot about the Peruvian officer, Chile spy case.
I asked what they thought/opinionated about that and his immediate
response was `well we have to by more arms.’ From there I asked him to
elaborate on that and explain how he arrived at this conclusion. And as a
result the following comments were made:

– First I asked how serious and credible this was. Was Peru 100% sure
that this guy was spying and be paid by Chile. He said that they were
more than 100% sure. He said that in Venezuela and Bolivia and sometimes
even in Argentina you’ll hear about all sorts of scandals or rumors or
exaggerated stories that should be taken with a grain of salt. He said,
however, that when it comes to Chile and Peru these things were taken
very seriously and as credible problems/threats.

– Peru is taking this scandal as a very big offense that, to an extent, is
being treated a bit like `the straw that broke the camel’s back’ in terms
of Chile-Peru tensions. He said that Alan
and the Frgn Min coming back shows just how serious the govt is taking
this issue and that they felt relations with Chile were put at a huge
risk. He said that while they haven’t officially broken off diplomatic
relations with Chile or recalled ambassadors, but that could be a
potential next step.

– He said this was shameful for Chile to finance such a spy project. He
said more importantly that Peru (at least the military) was absolutely
embarrassed and feels like they have
really been made the fool. He literally said at one point in the
conversation `somos los payasos.’

– At this point the recent diplomatic efforts by Peru to promote its pact
of non-aggression came up in the conversation. Again he said that Peru
looks foolish now for doing that and that they should not have believed
Chile saying `yeah not a bad idea.’ For him and the people in this
conversation and many in the military that diplomatic approach was over.
The idea of using diplomacy and believing in a possible agreement to
limit/control arms purchases is dead. Peru can’t afford to pursue that
any more and needs to make more assertive moves if it wants to be taken
seriously by Chile and not get so easily walked upon.

– He reiterated that Chile’s arms purchases were just way too much and
could not be justified by any means and for Peru it was clearly an
aggressive move that now can be interpreted no other way.

– He also said that the potential deal between Chile and the US was
particularly alarming. For them it signifies that the US has chosen to
side with Chile in any future Chile-Peru conflicts. They feel that Peru
can now not go to the US to buy weapons since its basically looks certain
that the US will be supplying Chile with arms.

– I asked if he knew how the Chile-US arms deal came about. If the US
started it or Chile. He said he didn’t know but that it didn’t matter
because a deal like that requires two very willing parties.

– They were also just very surprised in general that the US would side or
support Chile. According to him, the US has some DEA, anti-drug projects
in Peru and at least in this area, the military has always considered the
US a reliable and good partner. Betrayal is way to strong a word, but
perhaps snubbed or surprised describes some of their reactions/feelings to
the US possibly selling arms to Chile.

– Then came talk about what Peru would do. He said that Peru had to buy
weapons. I said they should only buy from the best and with the US not
being seen as an option, who was left. He said Israel and Russia were the
big, good, reliable arms suppliers out there for Peru to deal with. I
asked a bit of why for Israel since I
thought Israel purchased a lot of US arms. He said that Israel produces
some arms and that it has very good defense capability, both in equipment
and with the personnel. He also said that Peru has the money to make
large arms purchases should it so choose.

– I asked if the General or people were worried about things. He said the
general was not `preocupado’ but that he was certainly `consternado’.
They are all expecting a very tense week ahead and are waiting to see what
Garcia, the cabinet and governments do in the coming days.

CIA is monitoring Facebook and Twitter – “similar to ours” Stratfor says

List of documents > Release CIA is monitoring Facebook and Twitter – “similar to ours” Stratfor says

Released on 2012-09-16 00:00 GMT

Read stories about those documents at the following addresses:

Email-ID Subject From To Date
741263 [CT] US/SECURITY – AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter, Facebook ryan.abbey@stratfor.com ct@stratfor.com 2011-11
741429 Re: [CT] US/SECURITY – AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter, Facebook stewart@stratfor.com ct@stratfor.com, sean.noonan@stratfor.com 2011-11
743276 Re: [CT] US/SECURITY – AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter, Facebook stewart@stratfor.com ct@stratfor.com 2011-11
743377 Re: [CT] US/SECURITY – AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter, Facebook sean.noonan@stratfor.com ct@stratfor.com 2011-11
772018 Re: [CT] US/SECURITY – AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter, Facebook sean.noonan@stratfor.com ct@stratfor.com 2011-11
4247067 [CT] US/SECURITY – AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter, Facebook ryan.abbey@stratfor.com ct@stratfor.com 2011-11
5340082 Re: [CT] US/SECURITY – AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter, Facebook stewart@stratfor.com ct@stratfor.com, sean.noonan@stratfor.com 2011-11

Re: INSIGHT – VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 1707783
Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00

Question answered.

—– Original Message —–
From: “Fred Burton” <burton@stratfor.com>
To: “Reva Bhalla” <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, “Marko Papic”
<marko.papic@stratfor.com>
Cc: “Secure List” <secure@stratfor.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 2:56:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
Subject: RE: INSIGHT – VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

What is CANVAS?

———————————————————————-

From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 2:38 PM
To: Marko Papic
Cc: Secure List
Subject: Re: INSIGHT – VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
sounds a lot like these opposition leaders are getting paid off/threatened
sufficiently not to join
On Feb 2, 2010, at 2:24 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

SOURCE CODE: SR501

PUBLICATION: NO

SOURCE DESCRIPTION: CANVAS leader

ATTRIBUTION: Not yet, not unless they let us publish

SOURCE RELIABILITY: A

ITEM CREDIBILITY: 5

SPECIAL HANDLING:

DISTRIBUTION: Secure

SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

According to CANVAS itself, they believe the protests have come too
early. They are analogous to the ban against media and therefore follow
the CANVAS manual on regime change when it says that “you need to make
your opponent aware that there will be a price tag attached to his
oppressive behavior.” How effective the move is, we will soon know.

From the point of view of OTPOR, if the students want to grab the notion
that they are the number one enemy of Chavez, as Otpor did with
Milosevic, they are doing a good job at it. Next step is to start
putting pressure on the oppositio not to fracture (during anti-Slobo
protests the chant was “Traitors are Pussies”, referring to opposition
working with government). Church and students are currently polled in
Venezuela as more reliable and popular than the opposition parties…
again very similar to what happened in Serbia. Next step is to gather at
a place together with the opposition leaders… at a funeral, at a
meeting, anything. That is key next step. Getting the opposition to come
to a STUDENT gathering.

Marko Papic

STRATFOR
Geopol Analyst – Eurasia
700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
Austin, TX 78701 – U.S.A
TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
marko.papic@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com

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