INSIGHT – AR 516 – Peru’s response to the spy scandal, and thoughts from upper level military

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 375935
Date 2009-11-18 17:26:01

This demonstrates a relatively high level of agitation among the
Peruvians. My main military contact in Chile has been downplaying this
issue strongly, saying it doesn’t matter, tha tensions between Peru and
Chile are no big deal and that the Peruvians are exaggerating all of it.

Bypassing WO as per Stick.

PUBLICATION: Not yet
SOURCE: AR 01 chatting with AR 516
ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor Source
SOURCE placement : B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRO: SECURE
Handler: Karen

He said well we talked a lot about the Peruvian officer, Chile spy case.
I asked what they thought/opinionated about that and his immediate
response was `well we have to by more arms.’ From there I asked him to
elaborate on that and explain how he arrived at this conclusion. And as a
result the following comments were made:

– First I asked how serious and credible this was. Was Peru 100% sure
that this guy was spying and be paid by Chile. He said that they were
more than 100% sure. He said that in Venezuela and Bolivia and sometimes
even in Argentina you’ll hear about all sorts of scandals or rumors or
exaggerated stories that should be taken with a grain of salt. He said,
however, that when it comes to Chile and Peru these things were taken
very seriously and as credible problems/threats.

– Peru is taking this scandal as a very big offense that, to an extent, is
being treated a bit like `the straw that broke the camel’s back’ in terms
of Chile-Peru tensions. He said that Alan
and the Frgn Min coming back shows just how serious the govt is taking
this issue and that they felt relations with Chile were put at a huge
risk. He said that while they haven’t officially broken off diplomatic
relations with Chile or recalled ambassadors, but that could be a
potential next step.

– He said this was shameful for Chile to finance such a spy project. He
said more importantly that Peru (at least the military) was absolutely
embarrassed and feels like they have
really been made the fool. He literally said at one point in the
conversation `somos los payasos.’

– At this point the recent diplomatic efforts by Peru to promote its pact
of non-aggression came up in the conversation. Again he said that Peru
looks foolish now for doing that and that they should not have believed
Chile saying `yeah not a bad idea.’ For him and the people in this
conversation and many in the military that diplomatic approach was over.
The idea of using diplomacy and believing in a possible agreement to
limit/control arms purchases is dead. Peru can’t afford to pursue that
any more and needs to make more assertive moves if it wants to be taken
seriously by Chile and not get so easily walked upon.

– He reiterated that Chile’s arms purchases were just way too much and
could not be justified by any means and for Peru it was clearly an
aggressive move that now can be interpreted no other way.

– He also said that the potential deal between Chile and the US was
particularly alarming. For them it signifies that the US has chosen to
side with Chile in any future Chile-Peru conflicts. They feel that Peru
can now not go to the US to buy weapons since its basically looks certain
that the US will be supplying Chile with arms.

– I asked if he knew how the Chile-US arms deal came about. If the US
started it or Chile. He said he didn’t know but that it didn’t matter
because a deal like that requires two very willing parties.

– They were also just very surprised in general that the US would side or
support Chile. According to him, the US has some DEA, anti-drug projects
in Peru and at least in this area, the military has always considered the
US a reliable and good partner. Betrayal is way to strong a word, but
perhaps snubbed or surprised describes some of their reactions/feelings to
the US possibly selling arms to Chile.

– Then came talk about what Peru would do. He said that Peru had to buy
weapons. I said they should only buy from the best and with the US not
being seen as an option, who was left. He said Israel and Russia were the
big, good, reliable arms suppliers out there for Peru to deal with. I
asked a bit of why for Israel since I
thought Israel purchased a lot of US arms. He said that Israel produces
some arms and that it has very good defense capability, both in equipment
and with the personnel. He also said that Peru has the money to make
large arms purchases should it so choose.

– I asked if the General or people were worried about things. He said the
general was not `preocupado’ but that he was certainly `consternado’.
They are all expecting a very tense week ahead and are waiting to see what
Garcia, the cabinet and governments do in the coming days.

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[alpha] INSIGHT – PERU/RUSSIA/ENERGY – Take A Humala’s visit to Russia, interest in ties

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 99544
Date 2011-08-02 22:52:44

SOURCE: PE 502
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Peru
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: head of consulting firm that focuses on domestic
unrest, energy and security
PUBLICATION: yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B- (anti-humala but access to info)
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4
SPECIAL HANDLING: none
SOURCE HANDLER: Allison

After talking a bit with the Eurasia team there’s some reason to believe
that Russia may be interested in expanding in to Peru (as well as other
places).
This article summarizes the consulting firm’s take on the visit and how it
interprets different actions taken by Humala so far as indicators that
this interest is legit. It does provide as much concrete info as I’d like
but that’s ok.
Original is below in Spanish and good translate follows. Specific
translation or clarifications are available upon request. Let me know if
you have follow up questions, as there’s a decent chance I can keep him
talking about this for a bit longer.

Informe Especial al 02 de Agosto de 2011

Rusia y la Instrumentalizacion Politica del Gas

Cuando la URSS se desintegra, Rusia ve mermada su influencia en Europa,
Asia y el mundo en general. El transito de ser una potencia mundial-en un
mundo bipolar-a ser una potencia de segundo orden, con un ejercito
ineficaz, con un poder politico exterior menguante fue una realidad hasta
el final de Siglo XX. Y un imperativo ruso consistia en superar dicha
situacion politica de aislamiento en las grandes decisiones mundiales.

Como consecuencia de inviernos muy crudos en Europa, el gas ruso se
convierte en esencial para la supervivencia europea. Desde Alemania hasta
Italia se experimenta una dependencia del gas ruso y por ende del Estado
Ruso, propietario de Gazprom.

Esta dependencia del gas ruso ha convertido a Rusia en un actor relevante,
nuevamente, en Europa. Los gobiernos europeos son particularmente
cuidadosos al momento de condenar violaciones de DDHH en Rusia dada la
dependencia europea por este recurso. Inclusive la UE no se ha pronunciado
sobre las invasiones-temporales-del Ejercito ruso a diversos nuevos
estados antes parte de la URSS con violaciones al Derecho Internacional y
a los DDHH de por medio.

Sin embargo, Rusia desea expandir su influencia politica-fundada en el
recurso gas-al mundo. Lleva a cabo politicas de penetracion en Asia, India
con singular exito politico, hasta el momento ofreciendo tres productos:
Armas, gas y energia atomica. Y ese es el modus operandi ruso de
penetracion comercial y politica siendo posible llamarlo la diplomacia
comercial de las armas.

En el caso sudamericano, y especificamente peruano, la reunion de Alexis
Humala tuvo estos tres componentes. Y es que para la geopolitica rusa del
Siglo XXI el control de los yacimientos de gas a nivel mundial es un
imperativo de supervivencia. Para ello, utiliza formulas-ya ensayadas en
el Peru de los setentas-de armas por recursos naturales. Un analisis
cuidadoso de la reunion de Alexis Humala lleva a la conclusion que dicho
escenario fue propuesto en Rusia al hermano del Presidente.

Este analisis revela que la eleccion de un General EP retirado para el
Ministerio de Defensa no es casual ni gratuita. Garantizaria en primer
lugar un rearme peruano con equipamiento ruso-que adolece de serios
defectos en su mantenimiento y operatividad-pero que seria util para los
fines politicos del estado ruso en su politica de expansion comercial y el
gas

peruano seria un excelente medio de pago por la adquisicion de dicho
armamento. Por ello, el electo Ministro de Defensa Daniel Mora inicio la
semana con discursos antichilenos publicados en la prensa nacional y luego
desautorizados por el electo Canciller.

Este escenario coincide con el interes de los parlamentarios electos de
Gana Peru por el Cusco. Todos ellos desean la resolucion del Contrato de
Camisea teniendo en el presidente regional un aliado en ese sentido. Sera
necesario observar el desarrollo politico nacional para una mayor
evaluacion.

GOOGLE TRANSLATE:

Special Report August 2, 2011
Instrumentation Russia and Gas Policy
When the USSR disintegrated, Russia hampered its influence in Europe, Asia
and the world in general. The transition from being a world power, in a
bipolar world, to be a second-rate power with an army inefficient, with
dwindling foreign political power was a reality until the end of the
twentieth century. And a Russian imperative was to overcome this political
isolation in the big world decisions.

Because of very harsh winters in Europe, the Russian gas becomes essential
for the survival of Europe. From Germany to Italy was experiencing a
dependency on Russian gas and thus the Russian state, the owner of
Gazprom.

This dependence on Russian gas to Russia has become a major player again
in Europe. European governments are particularly careful when condemning
human rights violations in Russia because of European dependence on this
resource. Even the EU has not delivered on-time invasions-Russian army to
several new states formerly part of the USSR with violations of
international law and human rights at stake.

But Russia wants to expand its political influence in the resource-based
gas-to the world. Carry out policies of penetration in Asia, India with
singular political success so far by offering three products: Weapons, gas
and nuclear power. And that’s the modus operandi Russian commercial and
political penetration still possible to call commercial diplomacy of arms.

For South America, specifically Peru, Humala Alexis meeting had three
components. And as for the XXI Century Russian geopolitical control of gas
fields in the world is a survival imperative. It uses tried and tested
formulas, in Peru in the seventies-arms for natural resources. A careful
analysis of the meeting of Alexis Humala leads to the conclusion that such
a scenario was proposed in Russia in the President’s brother.

This analysis reveals that the choice of a retired Army General for the
Ministry of Defence is neither casual nor free. Ensure a reset first
Peruvian Russian equipment, which suffers from serious flaws in its
maintenance and operation, but it would be useful for the political aims
of the Russian state in its policy of trade expansion and gas
Peru would be an excellent means of payment for the acquisition of such
weapons. Therefore, the elected Minister of Defense Daniel Mora started
the week with anti-Chilean speeches published in the national press and
then disavowed by the elected Chancellor.

This scenario coincides with the interest of the parliamentarians elected
in Cusco Peru Win. They want the resolution of the Camisea contract taking
into regional president an ally in that regard. It will be necessary to
observe the national political development for further evaluation.

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