INSIGHT – US/Afghanistan – more on strategy debate

Released on 2013-02-17 00:00 GMT

Read stories about those documents at the following addresses:

Email-ID Subject From To Date
66841 Re: INSIGHT – US/Afghanistan – more on strategy debate reva.bhalla@stratfor.com aaron.colvin@stratfor.com 2009-10
68609 Re: INSIGHT – US/Afghanistan – more on strategy debate reva.bhalla@stratfor.com aaron.colvin@stratfor.com 2009-10
1037320 INSIGHT – US/Afghanistan – more on strategy debate aaron.colvin@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com 2009-10
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[alpha] INSIGHT – VZ/Brazil/Colombia/Costa Rica/Iran – Chavez, CT in Brazi and more

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 66581
Date 2011-05-19 21:10:20

PUBLICATION: background/analysis
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION:
Venezuelan financial investigative source, linked with the Israelis
Reliability : B-C
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 for most parts. be wary of Iran-related info from
these guys
DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

** The issue of counterterrorism (or lack thereof) in Brazil is an issue
I’ve been meaning to write on. Especially now if there are political
elements in brazil trying to make this into a big public issue, we can
address this in good depth

The Makled issue is dead. Santos is naive and Uribe is furious. He told us
to ‘go after him’ (meaning Santos,) and is accusing Santos of ‘ruining his
legacy.’ Santos is getting money paid back from VZ, chavez is building a
bridge, etc. etc., but this cooperation will not last forever. Colombia
just lost its leverage.

Now Santos is facing trouble with the US Congress on the FTA. There’s
enough support within Congress to block the agreement most likely, and the
Tea Partiers are the easiest to get on board to block it. Lugar is also
part of this campaign.

We are working with Veja (major Brazilian newsmagazine – correct me if im
wrong, but im pretty sure they’re more center-right in their politics) to
get Brazil to take counterterrorism seriously. The games are around the
corner, and nothing has been done. As we’ve discussed before, Brazil
doesn’t have a counterterrorism law and doesn’t acknowledge terrorism as
an issue because it doesn’t want to become a target. Brazil will track
movements of Hezbollah and other groups in the tri-border area, but they
dont want to make any big moves. Brazil’s national police are now feeding
Veja tons of information on the militants they’ve been tracking. They want
to expose all this info to put the Dilma government on the spot. The info
is detailed and pretty damning. It includes the recent movements of Hassan
Izz al Din (Argentina bomber). They also recently caught someone smuggling
yellow cake in northern brazil.

I don’t see any threat to Chavez internally right now. The VZ opposition
is lazy and corrupt as hell. WIthin the inner elite, everyone is taken
care of. The militia isn’t being viewed as a threat. The Chinese money is
coming in, and the relationship is becoming a lot more political. China
knows that they need Chavez to see these investments through and to get
paid back. They’re trying to pass lessons on hwo to contain dissent and
how to be prepared should an uprising occur.

Am meeting with the Costa Rican president tomorrow. They asked us to look
into who financed Nicaragua’s dredging of the San Juan river (this has
caused a major issue between the two countries.) They traced it back to
Iranian funding. Iran and China wanted to test the waters and see if they
could develop this new trade pass.

(I asked the source about the Die Welt rumors again and made clear with a
smile i knew he was behind them. he laughed and said look, this isn’t
cuban missile crisis. we have the documentation and the sat photos of the
components of the Shahabs and the assembly plant. He saw the skepticism on
my face and said he’ll bring it to me next week when we meet again. I’m
still really skeptical about these claims, of course, but i want to see
the alleged evidence first hand.

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Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – MEXICO – Iranian plot and Mexican “cooperation” with US – N/A

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 5072197
Date 2011-10-14 21:45:42

I don’t know about the other cooperation stuff, but Arbabsiar entered
Mexico at least 3 times prior to getting denied.

What changed that last time other than US notification?

———————————————————————-

From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2011 14:43:37 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT – MEXICO – Iranian plot and Mexican “cooperation”
with US – N/A
Not yet assigned source code. Individual is former federal-level law
enforcement official for Mexican government.

Just a comment about the article published today regarding the alleged
iranian plot.

I am a firm believer that mexican drug cartels don`t have any dealings
with foreign terrorist groups. They will not risk their main business to
become international terrorists. Besides, muslims and mexicans don`t mix
very well.

As you well know, Mexico keeps an immigration alert database containing
information related to international fugitives and suspects of other
crimes like terrorism.

Every day mexican immigration authorities encounter subjects on the alert
system who are not allowed to enter Mexico and are sent back to the point
of origin of their trip, notifying the recipient authorities.

That is exactly what happened with Manssor Arbabsiar. He was denied entry
and sent back to the US where he was arrested.

What is being said about the “cooperation” from the mexican government to
avoid the plot makes me laugh. The only cooperation was that we caught
Arbabsiar at the mexican airport and sent him back to the US just on the
fact that he was on the aforementioned alert.

The cooperation and communication between Mexico and the US is on it`s
lowest level.

You know that Mexico is not fully cooperating with the US since the
“wikileaks” reports showing that your Ambassador Carlos Pascual was
sending messages with “derogatory” information about mexican
authoritiesand after the “Fast and Furious Operation”.

Those incidents caused a fracture on the bi-lateral relation, mainly in
the mexican side.

Mexico now is keeping a lid on open communication with the US with the
only exception when Mexico has a benefit (like the Merida Plan).

It`s a shame that things are not as they were before.

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