[alpha] INSIGHT – VZ/Brazil/Colombia/Costa Rica/Iran – Chavez, CT in Brazi and more

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 66581
Date 2011-05-19 21:10:20

PUBLICATION: background/analysis
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION:
Venezuelan financial investigative source, linked with the Israelis
Reliability : B-C
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 for most parts. be wary of Iran-related info from
these guys
DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

** The issue of counterterrorism (or lack thereof) in Brazil is an issue
I’ve been meaning to write on. Especially now if there are political
elements in brazil trying to make this into a big public issue, we can
address this in good depth

The Makled issue is dead. Santos is naive and Uribe is furious. He told us
to ‘go after him’ (meaning Santos,) and is accusing Santos of ‘ruining his
legacy.’ Santos is getting money paid back from VZ, chavez is building a
bridge, etc. etc., but this cooperation will not last forever. Colombia
just lost its leverage.

Now Santos is facing trouble with the US Congress on the FTA. There’s
enough support within Congress to block the agreement most likely, and the
Tea Partiers are the easiest to get on board to block it. Lugar is also
part of this campaign.

We are working with Veja (major Brazilian newsmagazine – correct me if im
wrong, but im pretty sure they’re more center-right in their politics) to
get Brazil to take counterterrorism seriously. The games are around the
corner, and nothing has been done. As we’ve discussed before, Brazil
doesn’t have a counterterrorism law and doesn’t acknowledge terrorism as
an issue because it doesn’t want to become a target. Brazil will track
movements of Hezbollah and other groups in the tri-border area, but they
dont want to make any big moves. Brazil’s national police are now feeding
Veja tons of information on the militants they’ve been tracking. They want
to expose all this info to put the Dilma government on the spot. The info
is detailed and pretty damning. It includes the recent movements of Hassan
Izz al Din (Argentina bomber). They also recently caught someone smuggling
yellow cake in northern brazil.

I don’t see any threat to Chavez internally right now. The VZ opposition
is lazy and corrupt as hell. WIthin the inner elite, everyone is taken
care of. The militia isn’t being viewed as a threat. The Chinese money is
coming in, and the relationship is becoming a lot more political. China
knows that they need Chavez to see these investments through and to get
paid back. They’re trying to pass lessons on hwo to contain dissent and
how to be prepared should an uprising occur.

Am meeting with the Costa Rican president tomorrow. They asked us to look
into who financed Nicaragua’s dredging of the San Juan river (this has
caused a major issue between the two countries.) They traced it back to
Iranian funding. Iran and China wanted to test the waters and see if they
could develop this new trade pass.

(I asked the source about the Die Welt rumors again and made clear with a
smile i knew he was behind them. he laughed and said look, this isn’t
cuban missile crisis. we have the documentation and the sat photos of the
components of the Shahabs and the assembly plant. He saw the skepticism on
my face and said he’ll bring it to me next week when we meet again. I’m
still really skeptical about these claims, of course, but i want to see
the alleged evidence first hand.

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