Re: INSIGHT – VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 1707783
Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00

Question answered.

—– Original Message —–
From: “Fred Burton” <burton@stratfor.com>
To: “Reva Bhalla” <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, “Marko Papic”
<marko.papic@stratfor.com>
Cc: “Secure List” <secure@stratfor.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 2:56:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
Subject: RE: INSIGHT – VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

What is CANVAS?

———————————————————————-

From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 2:38 PM
To: Marko Papic
Cc: Secure List
Subject: Re: INSIGHT – VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
sounds a lot like these opposition leaders are getting paid off/threatened
sufficiently not to join
On Feb 2, 2010, at 2:24 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

SOURCE CODE: SR501

PUBLICATION: NO

SOURCE DESCRIPTION: CANVAS leader

ATTRIBUTION: Not yet, not unless they let us publish

SOURCE RELIABILITY: A

ITEM CREDIBILITY: 5

SPECIAL HANDLING:

DISTRIBUTION: Secure

SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

According to CANVAS itself, they believe the protests have come too
early. They are analogous to the ban against media and therefore follow
the CANVAS manual on regime change when it says that “you need to make
your opponent aware that there will be a price tag attached to his
oppressive behavior.” How effective the move is, we will soon know.

From the point of view of OTPOR, if the students want to grab the notion
that they are the number one enemy of Chavez, as Otpor did with
Milosevic, they are doing a good job at it. Next step is to start
putting pressure on the oppositio not to fracture (during anti-Slobo
protests the chant was “Traitors are Pussies”, referring to opposition
working with government). Church and students are currently polled in
Venezuela as more reliable and popular than the opposition parties…
again very similar to what happened in Serbia. Next step is to gather at
a place together with the opposition leaders… at a funeral, at a
meeting, anything. That is key next step. Getting the opposition to come
to a STUDENT gathering.

Marko Papic

STRATFOR
Geopol Analyst – Eurasia
700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
Austin, TX 78701 – U.S.A
TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
marko.papic@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com

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